First Call Partners was recently commissioned by the British High Commission (BHC) in Abuja to conduct a stability analysis. The report assessed what stability and instability means in Nigeria, what are the key factors that influence this (economic, political, security, social), and what areas are most critical to tackle to prevent a decline into greater fragility.
The report examined key issues that drive instability across Nigeria including governance, economic inequality, lack of education and employment opportunities, corruption, and the impact of organised crime and violent extremism. The report found that whilst there are some mitigating resilience factors, a combination of the structural issues facing Nigeria and the short-term drivers suggest that the key trends relating to instability in Nigeria are negative. Recent compounding factors include the impact of COVID-19, currency exchange pressures, turbulent global oil prices, and the actions of security forces which triggered the end-SARS protests. The report was well received by the BHC and will contribute to the development of UK Government strategy and planning in Nigeria.